Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in Northern Pakistan

Abstract

Wheat underpins food security in Pakistan, yet its production is increasingly exposed to climatic stressors that are intensifying in Northern Pakistan. This paper synthesizes recent evidence (2019–2024) on how warming, heat extremes, rainfall variability, drought–flood cycles, and cryosphere change affect wheat phenology, physiology, yields, and farmer livelihoods in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and adjacent northern agro-ecologies. We review observational studies, crop–climate simulations (DSSAT, APSIM, AquaCrop), econometric analyses, and remote-sensing diagnostics (e.g., SPEI) to quantify impacts and uncertainty. Consistent with global and South Asian assessments, terminal heat around anthesis and grain filling emerges as the dominant hazard, reducing yield via shortened grain-filling duration, pollen sterility, and impaired photosynthesis. Combined heat–drought stress further depresses grain number and quality. Pakistan- and province-level studies indicate that a 1 °C rise can lower wheat yields by ~5–7% in Pakistan on average, with rainfed KP particularly sensitive because irrigation buffers are limited and seasonal rainfall is volatile. The 2022 megaflood and recent anomalous spring rains illustrate growing exposure to extremes that disrupt planting/harvest windows and damage seed, soils, and infrastructure. While elevated CO₂ can partially offset warming through fertilization, benefits are constrained by heat, water, and nutrient limitations. Adaptation options with strong evidence for KP include adjusting sowing dates, scaling heat-tolerant/early-maturing cultivars, conserving soil moisture, and targeted supplemental irrigation and advisories; breeding for heat–drought tolerance and strengthening climate services remain priorities. We conclude by outlining policy and research directions for resilient wheat systems in Northern Pakistan.